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Re: future directions in ocean carbon-cycle modeling

Hi Corinne and Ken,

	Here are some quick thoughts.


At 10:00 AM -0700 8/23/00, Ken Caldeira wrote:
>We (Corinne Lequere and Ken Caldeira) are tasked with discussing 
>future directions in ocean carbon-cycle modeling at the upcoming 
>SCOR/IOC Ocean CO2 Panel meeting.
>So that we can avoid overemphasizing our own parochial biases, it 
>would be helpful if ocean carbon-cycle modelers could send us a 
>succinct e-mail message describing your views on:
>1. modeling: Where should emphasis be placed in ocean carbon-cycle 
>modeling over the next decade?

	I think that we need to find creative ways of using our new 
(and evolving) observational data base to constrain the models so 
that they are getting the right answers for the right reasons.  I 
think that the key issue is to find ways to examining the relative 
roles of mixing and advection in getting the tracers into the ocean 
and to understand how numerics influences the results.  The long term 
behavior of tracer uptake by the ocean is very sensitive to whether 
advection or diffusion are doing the work.

	I also believe that interannual variability is going to be a 
critical issue to address.

>2. observations: Which observations or observational programs could 
>most cost-effectively advance the state of ocean carbon-cycle 
>simulation over the next decade?

	We need to be able to monitor the air-sea flux continuously 
with good regional resolution.  I think it will be possible to do 
this if we are willing to put the resources into it.  We cannot trust 
remote sensing to do this for us.  The correlations of delta pCO2 
with temperature and color are not good enough, though these 
satellite data sets will help us to extrapolate.  We are doing some 
work on sampling strategies with various other people and it is 
beginning to look to me that we can develop such a monitoring 
program.  A major issue is to resolve the gas exchange coefficient 
problem, but there has been good progress on this.

	Repeat sections will enable us to document tracer entry into 
the abyss as well as whether the upper ocean is absorbing CO2 at the 
expected rate.

Best regards, Jorge

>A brief response to these questions will help us to better represent 
>community interests. We thank you in advance for your help in this 
>Corinne Lequere, lequere@bgc-jena.mpg.de
>Ken Caldeira, kenc@llnl.gov
>Ken Caldeira
>Climate and Carbon Cycle Group
>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
>7000 East Ave., L-103
>Livermore CA 94550 USA
>tel: (925)  423-4191
>fax: (925)  422-6388
>e-mail:  kenc@LLNL.gov

Jorge L. Sarmiento
AOS Program, Princeton U.
Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus
P.O. Box CN710
Princeton, NJ 08544-0710

Tel. (609) 258-6585
Fax. (609) 258-2850
E-mail: jls@splash.princeton.edu

See the Carbon Modeling Consortium web site at